The most recent information is at the top and progresses into the
past as you scroll down. Also see How to Use our Watch
List.
Use the descriptions from 3/25 for the columns and what they mean.
Use the descriptions from 3/25 for the columns and what they mean.
Use the descriptions from 3/25 for the columns and what they mean.
Use the descriptions from last week for the columns and what they mean.
I apologize for some big changes, but the tools I have been using
are not working. I have not made a page yet to describe how
to use all these numbers, so this will be a quick orientation:
The pages in the spreadsheet are exported from the Quotes page on
the TOS platform. There are several custom studies which are
intended to help judge the strength of trends in various time
scales. The studies are not fully refined and I was not
ready to turn this loose without more study.
There are 3 pages, one is the market ETF list, another is the
Sector ETF list, both are on the Market Analysis page of this
website. The third is our base list of all ETFs; ordinarily
I have only listed those symbols in line with the current trend
and at least as strong as the strongest sectors and industry
groups. All of these have studies I will now describe
briefly to help you make sense of this new data format.
All these values are scaled nominally in percent - and normalized
for price so any fund at any price will be weighted appropriately.
I don't have suggested strategies yet. We are looking at
using these to rotate positions into issues which are persisting
in longer term trends.
Because the quotes page on TOS does not allow recursion in
scripts some of the most effective technical studies we have
cannot be used in this manner and are still relegated to chart
studies.
Each table on this spreadsheet is sorted on the Trend
Intermediate Acceleration. Most indicate a possible bull
flag.
I suggest that you can use your own software to sort these based
on the other trend criteria in the table and look over the charts
to see if these numbers are of use for you in selection of funds.
It is also reasonable to look at the top few ETFs and then take
from their top 10 holdings to get individual stocks.
It's been about a month and there has been some slowing in the
market and a minor pull back in some issues. However, the
market is quite strong and many issues showed little more than a
bull flag. Issues on this list which were on the last are
strong and steady growth in the current conditions, but issues on
the last list and not here may be great candidates for support
bounce trades - especially if small caps break into new highs.
We will start screening our ETF watch list again. Notably
India is outperforming the strongest US sectors and groups, there
are about 50 issues as strong or stronger as the strongest US
sectors and groups.
However, given world conditions, unless the return is
significantly better, we will mostly focus on US investments.
Do remember, the ETFs are all performing strongly, they are
sorted in order of (3-month average) volume traded, so those on
the higher end of the list are better for liquidity in option
trades while those lower may be less interesting for option
trades.
It looks like the 1100 target played out, but it seems likely we will test that low again. Huge real volatility, but possibly a good place to be selling puts...
The break of the lows from June makes a price target of around 1150, but the break from the May highs makes a price target around 1100.
It looks like the lows a couple weeks ago are broken. This makes a price target of the previous lows about a month ago...
A bounce but no breakout, nothing to write home about.
No watch list. A break below the range last week suggests a
price target of the recent lows, a bounce puts the target at the
recent highs. We have been hanging in the middle of the
trading range since February, there is little evidence to suggest
below or above...
No watch list this week, we are near the old highs, a breakout
would be remarkably strong, but a rollover is more likely...
Past that, though, will it be a flag or a continuation of the
sideways trend...
A Bullish List - but cautiously so. Friday was an
unexpected follow-through of the rally seen this week. It
suggests a temporary change in the market action. However,
if the market rolls over and resumes the correction these are all
high-beta issues and are candidates for a bear-flag entry upon a
resistance bounce.
We did not have time to screen a watch list this week. The current trend is strongly down, but we closed near a significant support level. See the Market Analysis for this week...
We did not have time to screen a watch list this week. The current trend is strongly down, but we closed near a significant support level. See the Market Analysis for this week...
The Market continues in a strong down trend The list is
bearish, few ETFs are more bearish than the US core funds we
monitor. In fact few are even as bearish. This kind of
suggests to me we are getting oversold. There is still some
room for issues near support to really test that support
area. Watch for flags or breakdowns for clues.
The Market appeared to make a channel breakout and got strongly
hammered down, confirming and resuming the short term down
trend. We now rest with SPX /ES at the bottom of the
descending channel with NDX /NQ and RUT /TF around the April
Support level... But /ES closed below 1300 on Friday -
possibly a downside breakout. In the nature of the current
trend we seem due for a short technical bounce of 1-3 days - then
1-3 down days following with possibly a lower low. Last year
we saw a 17% correction - and even the presidential election cycle
allows a correction in the third year - even though the third year
has closed up since World War II... Be ready for the charts
to do wnatever you don't expcet, and trade the charts.
The market has bounced from support to the descending resistance
line. The short term has a series of lower highs and lower
lows, but there was just a bounce from near a significant support
level, but the sideways market channel has room for another low
without being broken. This downturn has lasted about as long
as that in February, but has not been nearly as deep.
The market maintains a sideways trading range. These can
push the boundaries on both sides without really changing the
trend. Short term we do have some lower highs and lower
lows, but they don't seem very significant yet. However with
Utilities and Health Care leading the strongest segments of the
market at +3% and the list of bullish outperformers dwindling, the
watch list is bearish. Even if the market bounces, these
higher beta issues are most likely to bounce more strongly.
Markt Posture is Neutral, the longer term trend is up,
intermediate term is flat, short term down, around support.
There is the old saying go away in May, not a good idea for
traders or investors. The list is bullish because we still
have higher highs and higher lows in the market. If you want
bearish look to foreign ETFs and Commodity related issues,
actually most strongly moving foreign ETFs are strongly commodity
dependent, so you get both... Watch support and
resistance. For low risk bearish entries look for resistance
bounces to confirm, low risk bullish entries are support bounces,
at least for us...
Markt Posture is Neutral, the longer term trend is up,
intermediate term is flat, short term down, around support.
Increased Margin requirements hit the leverage against Silver and
Gold, then the dollar bounced strongly. But earnings are
good, so with a rising dollar we would expect rotation from
multinational investments to more home grown things. If we
can get interest rates to spread out then banks can make money,
and with financials we might have more up side.
But there seems, in my mind, to be something wrong with Japan
(EWJ) and Utilities (XLU) among the most bullish broad
investments... So if the market breaks support look to the
issues which fell off the list over the last 3 weeks. In
fact, even if the market does bounce, those things may bounce most
strongly.
Markt Posture is Neutral, the longer term trend is up,
intermediate term is flat, short term up, still at
resistance. Monday's draw down bounced immediately, mostly
on the earnings from Intel. But good earnings continued
through the week with tech companies beating estimates more than
expected. This week starts a large number of earnings
statements...
Markt Posture is Neutral, the longer term trend is up,
intermediate term is flat, short term up, still at
resistance. Monday's draw down bounced immediately, mostly
on the earnings from Intel. But good earnings continued
through the week with tech companies beating estimates more than
expected. This week starts a large number of earnings
statements...
Note I had the wrong link on last week's watch list, the link is
corrected now.
Markt Posture is Neutral, the longer term trend is up, intermediate term is flat, short term up, but at resistance. Another Friday and, perhaps, another reversal. This week's draw down barely showed up on some groups in the market, though it had some breadth to it - It's hard to say if this was expiration or an actual support bounce.
Markt Posture is Neutral, the longer term trend is up, intermediate term is flat, short term up, but at resistance. Friday may have marked a short term trend reversal on RUT/TF, but was not a significant distribution day on many other measures of market performance - a rollover is expected around resistance in a flat intermediate trend.
Markt Posture is Neutral, the longer term trend is up,
intermediate term is flat, short term up, but at resistance.
This is a bullish watch list, but if the market rolls over many of
these issues will see profit taking since they are high beta
issues.
Markt Posture is Neutral, the longer term trend is up,
intermediate term is flat, short term up, but at resistance.
This is a bullish watch list, but if the market rolls over many of
these issues will see profit taking since they are high beta
issues.
Markt Posture is Neutral, the longer term trend is up,
intermediate term is flat, short term flat to down, we may be in a
bear flag... There are few real clues as to a deeper
correction or a trend resumption, see Market Analysis.
Markt Posture is Neutral, the longer term trend is up,
intermediate term is up, short term flat. Few clues as to a
deeper correction or a trend resumption, see Market Analysis.
I created both a bullish and bearish watch list with ETFs and the
same from the NDX stocks. Only taking issues for each list
which exceed the performance of the sectors and industry groups I
follow. The simple fact is that the bullish ETF list is much
longer than the bearish one - so far, anyway.
Market Posture is bullish. A test of the breakout is
possible, even likely - a bounce may be a chance to add on...
Market Posture is bullish, given a new breakout. A test of
the breakout is possible, even likely - a bounce may be a chance
to add on...
A lot of the high dividend stocks shot up in the last couple
weeks, this will ultimately lower their dividend yeild. One
strategy with these is to pile on when they pull back and the
dividend goes above about 4% and take profits when the dividend
goes below about 2%.
This week I started doing something differently for the Market
Leaders. I am still comparing both ETFs and Stocks to the
strongest sector and industry ETFs, but with the stocks I only
used the NDX stocks plus the top 10 stocks of the strongest
sectors and industry groups. I marked stocks trading less
then a million shares a day in orange and red for less than
500K/day. On the Dividend Paying list I highlighted in green
the few issues trading over a million shares a day.
Market Posture is Neutral, but international issues have added to
the down pressure on the market.
While the major markets are back where they were last Friday, the
analysis of sectors is a little different, see the Market
Analysis.
This way I will work recent lists and the 20 reference ETFs we
watch for in the next week or so.
So our stock watch list will be those stocks above the relatively
flat distribution of recent gainers. Bearish below the
losers - and maybe a look at the Slope of Hope...